Socio-economic forecasting of development of the Ukraine’s food production complex
The essence and structure-functional characteristic of food production complex were
investigated; found a place of socio-economic forecasting in the functional structure of the
state development mechanism of food production complex was founded; structure features
of the natural-resource potential of food production complex development were described. It
is emphasized that important elements of socio-economic forecasting review forecasts and
their grouping according to different classification criteria.
The food production complex of Ukraine in a system of agricultural production was
considered, the analysis of state food crop and livestock production markets was made. Also
the priority of food safety in the formation process of the national safety was defined, the
world experience of state regulation of agroindustrial complex and its application in areas of
Ukraine were studied.
To assess of the international competitiveness of state agricultural production was used
the method of calculating the index revealed comparative advantage. During the study on
the competitiveness of state agricultural production were revealed that the latter had a higher
international competitiveness than agroindustrial production of Ukraine in general. In
addition to assessment of the international competitiveness of state agricultural production
in general, a dynamic research of the international competitiveness of some food products in
Ukraine was performed. The method of calculating of a trade preferences indexes for certain
agricultural products was chosen, which were the main products of export specialization of
To improve the efficiency of state food production complex the prognostic assessment
of export potential increasing of the food production complex of Ukraine were made, main
directions of competitiveness increase of state food products on world markets were
Socio-economic forecast and the place of food production complex in ensuring
consumer needs of Ukraine’s population in food products were done by applying the
methodology of socio-economic forecasting for using of certain methods – extrapolation
techniques to define predictive values of production and consumption of food products, on
which the level of self-sufficiency these products in the state food market was determined.
As a result of studies for prediction of production and consumption of food products to the
2014-2019 years the accuracy of using of quadratic trend dependence was proved. The
average approximation error was calculated, which depended on quadratic trend for each
type of food products is lower in all the cases investigated by the figure calculated taking
into account the trend line equation.
Keywords: forecast, food production complex, socio-economic forecasting of food
production complex development, food safety, food, food products, the production and
consumption of food products, self-sufficient level of food production.