Senyshyn Oksana Stepanivna


Socio-economic forecasting of development of the Ukraine’s food production complex


The  essence  and  structure-functional  characteristic  of  food  production  complex  were
investigated; found a place of socio-economic forecasting in the functional structure of the
state development mechanism of food production complex was founded; structure features
of the natural-resource potential of food production complex development were described. It
is emphasized that important elements of socio-economic forecasting review forecasts and
their grouping according to different classification criteria.
The  food  production  complex  of  Ukraine  in  a  system  of  agricultural  production  was
considered, the analysis of state food crop and livestock production markets was made. Also
the priority of food safety in the formation  process of the national safety was defined, the
world experience of state regulation of agroindustrial complex and its application in areas of
Ukraine were studied.
To assess of the international competitiveness of state agricultural production was used
the method of calculating the index revealed comparative advantage. During the study on
the competitiveness of state agricultural production were revealed that the latter had a higher
international  competitiveness  than  agroindustrial  production  of  Ukraine  in  general.  In
addition to assessment of the international competitiveness of state agricultural production
in general, a dynamic research of the international competitiveness of some food products in
Ukraine was performed. The method of calculating of a trade preferences indexes for certain
agricultural products was chosen, which were the main products of export specialization of
To improve the efficiency of state food production complex the prognostic assessment
of export potential increasing of the food production complex of Ukraine were made, main
directions  of  competitiveness  increase  of  state  food  products  on  world  markets  were
Socio-economic  forecast  and  the  place  of  food  production  complex  in  ensuring
consumer  needs  of  Ukraine’s  population  in  food  products  were  done  by  applying  the
methodology  of  socio-economic  forecasting  for  using  of  certain  methods  –  extrapolation
techniques to define predictive values of production and consumption of food products, on
which the level of self-sufficiency these products in the state food market was determined.
As a result of studies for prediction of production and consumption of food products to the
2014-2019  years  the  accuracy  of  using  of  quadratic  trend  dependence  was  proved.  The
average  approximation  error  was  calculated,  which  depended  on  quadratic  trend  for  each
type of food products is lower in all the cases investigated by the figure calculated taking
into account the trend line equation.
Keywords:  forecast,  food  production  complex,  socio-economic  forecasting  of  food
production  complex  development,  food  safety,  food,  food  products,  the  production  and
consumption of food products, self-sufficient level of food production.

Defence Date


Dissertation File

Autosummary File